Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?

Will an opensource LLM on huggingface beat an average human at the most common LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?

HumanEval 90% #3: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2026?

Will >50% of the tasks in the WebArena benchmark be solved by EOY 2024?

Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?

HumanEval 90% #2: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2025?

Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?

AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?