HumanEval 90% #2: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2025?77%
HumanEval 90% #3: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2026?79%
HumanEval 90% #4: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2027?81%
HumanEval 90% #5: Will pass@1 performance on the HumanEval benchmark be >= 90% by 2028?87%
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2030?60%
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?70%
Will any AI be able to formalize >=90% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?40%
Will there be a Forward-Forward Algorithm based neural network with >65% Top 1 Accuracy on Papers With Code's ImageNet leaderboard by 2024?33%
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?15%
Will any AI solve >=100 IMO problems by the start of 2024?20%
Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024?53%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?40%
Will AI pass the Turing test by 2029 Jan 1?70%
Will AI image generating models score >= 90% on Winoground by June 1, 2025?85%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?59%
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?21%
Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?96%
Will there be a program achieving at least 50% accuracy on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus by the end of 2023?42%
Will any AI solve >=50 IMO problems by the start of 2024?45%
Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?25%
