By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm? | Manifold

By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?

Plus

28

Ṁ2010

2027

64%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).

To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.

If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predicts YES

Here's one candidate: a meta-optimiser that just won a best paper award at NeurIPS "Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer" https://openreview.net/forum?id=-Qp-3L-5ZdI

Does your criterion require that >= 50% are using the SAME novel algo?

@mcld Good question: I will say no, it does not require the same novel algorithm.

Related questions

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Will novelcrafter become the goto AI tool for writing novels in 2024?

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

-7% 1d32% chance

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Related questions

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Will "Genetic Algorithm" come back before 2031?

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2024?

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will novelcrafter become the goto AI tool for writing novels in 2024?

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules