For the market to resolve YES:

• An IRBM or ICBM strike must be reported by credible sources. The credibility is up to my judgment (or a mod's judgment if due to the effects of the strike I am unable to resolve the market). For example, I will consider it credible if the FT and/or Economist report an Oreshnik strike and little or no contradictory evidence is surfaced by accounts such as OSINTdefender, or confirmatory claims are made by Russian authorities.

• It must have occurred between 21:00 23 May 2026 and 21:00 1 Jun 2026, Kyiv/Moscow time.

• The ballistic missile must reach the Kyiv metropolitan area and damage anything (rather than simply be launched).

Otherwise the market resolves NO.

I will make a bet of Ṁ1 on this market.