Will at least one North Korean soldier defect to any European country before March 1, 2025?
Will at least one North Korean soldier defect to any European country before March 1, 2025?
20
1kṀ5604
Feb 28
3%
chance

According to Wikipedia:

  • "In late October 2024, the US said it had seen evidence that North Korea had sent 3,000 soldiers to Russia for possible deployment to Ukraine. On 28 October, NATO chief Mark Rutte confirmed earlier Ukrainian intelligence that North Korean troops had been deployed to Kursk Oblast, and the Pentagon reported an increased number of 10,000 North Korean soldiers sent to train in Russia and fight in the war."

A handful of citizens of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ("North Korea") annually defect to neighbouring South Korea with an aim to leave flee the country with the world's worst human rights record. In 2023, some 196 citizens defected in 2023.

For North Korean troops operating in Ukraine, this may present an opportunity to defect to a neighbouring European country - not only to avoid the prospect of returning to North Korea, but also to avoid the lethal fighting conditions in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Question will resolve to "Yes" if at least one (1) DPRK solider* defects to any European country before March 1, 2024. This must be reported by at least two mainstream news sources (e.g., Bloomberg, AP, BBC etc.)

* A member of the DPRK armed forces or the Reconnaissance General Bureau.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • A formal, unforced defection is required - military surrender alone does not count

  • If a soldier surrenders and then works with a European country, this will not count if there is any indication the defection was forced or pressured

  • Cases where Ukraine is the destination country will be scrutinized carefully to ensure the defection was unforced

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bought Ṁ10 YES4mo

Does surrendering militarily count?

4mo

@TheAllMemeingEye I'll add a clarification, but no. It must be a formal, unforced defection. I think this will be will relatively unambiguous to determine from news reports if this occurs.

If a solider surrenders and then decides to work with an European country, then it's not really possible to determine if it's forced / pressured or not - so it probably makes sense to be careful if Ukraine is the country in question.

Is that OK?

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