Will Manifold decrease or increase the redemption rate for sweepcash in 2024 (for redemptions of at least 𝕊1000)? | Manifold

Will Manifold decrease or increase the redemption rate for sweepcash in 2024 (for redemptions of at least 𝕊1000)?

Basic

3

Ṁ76

Jan 1

16%

Decrease

26%

Increase

48%

Neither decrease nor increase

10%

Both decrease and increase

Currently you can redeem sweepcash for 𝕊1.00 → $1 USD, minus a 5% fee. This means that 𝕊1000 sweepcash can be redeemed for $950 USD.

For the purposes of this question, increase means that Manifold officially provides an option to redeem 𝕊x sweepcash for greater than $0.95x USD for any real number x >= 1000, for any period of time.

Decrease means that Manifold officially provides an option to redeem 𝕊x sweepcash for less than $0.95x USD for any real number x > 1, and does not provide an option to redeem 𝕊y sweepcash for greater than or equal to $0.95y USD for any real number y >= 1000, for any period of time.

1000 is chosen because currently that is the only large amount of money that can be bought for sweepcash at a 1:1 ratio.

This question uses Eastern (Standard) Time.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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The fee means that Manifold can lag behind other markets like Polymarket by up to 5%.

@vi You can recycle the same capital over and over without paying the fee, so long term market participants are incentived to trade the market to fair even if it's within 5% of fair, as long as there will be future similar opportunities.

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