Will OpenRouter's Horizon Alpha be confirmed as GPT-5?
8
100Ṁ232Oct 1
26%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
OpenRouter just announced a new stealth model, called Horizon Alpha: https://openrouter.ai/openrouter/horizon-alpha
In the past, Quasar Alpha & Optimus Alpha were eventually officially revealed to be versions of GPT-4.1. (Within <2 weeks of initially being available)
Resolves YES if an official OpenRouter or OpenAI account confirms that Horizon Alpha is in fact GPT-5. This would resolve YES for any versions of GPT-5, eg: 5.0, 5.1, 5-nano, 5-experimental. This would resolve NO for any non-5 OpenAI models, eg: o4, GPT-4.7, etc.
Resolves NO if Horizon Alpha is confirmed to not be GPT-5.
Resolves NO if the model is not confirmed either way within 2 months (at the end of September).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
GPT-5 released by July 31st?
4% chance
When will GPT 5 be released? (exact month)
GPT-5 released in August 2025?
89% chance
GPT-5 released before August 15, 2025?
74% chance
When will GPT5 be announced?
What will be true about GPT-5?
When GPT-5 will released?
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
84% chance
Will GPT-5 involve a model router?
86% chance
When will GPT 5 be released