Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the option that accurately identifies the underlying model of Horizon Alpha on OpenRouter. The resolution will be based on official announcements from OpenRouter or the model's developers, as well as credible sources detailing the model's origin.

If at the end of the year there is no consensus of information from credible sources, this market will resolve N/A.

In the event that OpenAI releases multiple open source models before market close, if Horizon Alpha is confirmed to be one of them this market will resolve "A version of OpenAI's open source model".

In the event that Horizon Alpha is confirmed to be a version of a model with GPT-5 in the name, such as GPT-5-mini, then this market will resolve "A version of GPT-5".

Background

OpenRouter has introduced several models with limited public information regarding their origins. For instance, Quasar Alpha and Optimus Alpha were cloaked models which were later revealed to be checkpoints of GPT-4.1. Horizon Alpha is similarly freely and anonymously available on OpenRouter.