Resolves yes if the government refunds businesses and/or importers for the tariffs they paid. Stakes in tariffs bought by hedge funds count. Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority is defined as: if over 50% of the tariffs collected were refunded, in dollars.

Yes — resolved on Aug 8, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?

Ṁ1kṀ8.9k

resolved Aug 8

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves yes if the government refunds businesses and/or importers for the tariffs they paid. Stakes in tariffs bought by hedge funds count.

Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Majority is defined as: if over 50% of the tariffs collected were refunded, in dollars.

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@HillaryClinton could you please qualify the “majority” restriction you have in the title? How would a positive resolution be triggered?

@aleven if over 50% of the tariffs collected were refunded, in dollars.