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MANIFOLD
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30? [Polymarket]
221
Ṁ1kṀ60k
resolved May 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves as https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.

To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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That is a highly misleading title. The description on Polymarket says "An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count." The devil is in the fine print, again.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Can you please not? Give it a rest.

@Predictor I disagree with Jussi about this title being "misleading", I think it does match the description. But I like demands for clarification! And I think Jussi's comment is what prompted the creator to copy the Polymarket details into the description here, which is a big improvement imo.