​هل سينسحب ترامب عسكرياً من إيران قبل انتهاء مهلة الـ 60 يوماً القانونية (29 أبريل)؟

Will Trump withdraw US forces from Iran before the 60-day War Powers deadline (April 29)?

​الوصف (Description):

​بدأت العمليات العسكرية الأمريكية المكثفة ضد إيران في مارس 2026. وبموجب "قانون سلطات الحرب" (War Powers Resolution)، يمتلك الرئيس صلاحية إدارة العمليات القتالية لمدة 60 يوماً فقط دون الحصول على تفويض رسمي من الكونجرس. تنتهي هذه المهلة القانونية في 29 أبريل 2026.

​شروط الحسم (Resolution Criteria):

• ​نعم (YES): إذا أعلن البيت الأبيض أو البنتاغون رسمياً عن وقف العمليات القتالية الرئيسية أو انسحاب القوات المنخرطة في الضربات قبل نهاية يوم 29 أبريل 2026 (توقيت واشنطن).

• ​لا (NO): إذا استمرت العمليات العسكرية المباشرة بعد هذا التاريخ دون الحصول على تفويض رسمي من الكونجرس الأمريكي.

• ​غير قابل للحسم (N/A): في حال وجود غموض قانوني أو نقص في البيانات الميدانية المؤكدة.

​English Version:

U.S. military operations against Iran intensified in March 2026. Under the War Powers Resolution, the President is limited to a 60-day window for hostilities without formal Congressional authorization. This legal deadline expires on April 29, 2026.

​Resolution Criteria:

• ​YES: If the White House or Pentagon officially announces the end of major combat operations or the withdrawal of forces involved in the strikes before the end of April 29, 2026 (ET).

• ​NO: If direct military operations continue beyond this date without formal Congressional authorization.

• ​N/A: If the legal status becomes ambiguous or data is inconclusive.

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the White House or Pentagon officially announces the cessation of major combat operations or withdrawal of forces engaged in strikes before the end of April 29, 2026 (Eastern Time). This includes any formal statement indicating the end of direct military operations against Iran. The President may unilaterally extend the 60-day period by an additional 30 days if certifying "unavoidable military necessity respecting the safety of United States Armed Forces", which would push the deadline to May 29. If such an extension is formally invoked, the market resolves NO unless operations cease before the extended deadline.

The market resolves NO if direct military operations continue beyond April 29, 2026 without formal Congressional authorization. Continued operations include air strikes, ground raids, or sustained combat engagement. The market resolves N/A only if the legal status becomes fundamentally ambiguous or if Congress passes formal authorization before the deadline (which would make the War Powers deadline moot).

Background

Operation Epic Fury, authorized by President Trump on March 1, 2026, is a military campaign to eliminate Iran's nuclear threat, destroy its ballistic missile arsenal, degrade proxy networks, and cripple its naval forces. The Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran as thousands of American soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East. Potential operations include targeting the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Kharg Island (Iran's main oil export hub), or seizing Iran's enriched uranium stockpile.

The War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days without congressional authorization. Trump has stated his administration is continuing to negotiate with Iran and expressed optimism that an agreement would soon be reached, though Iranian officials have repeatedly said no direct talks are underway and dismissed a 15-point ceasefire proposal as "excessive and unreasonable".

Considerations

Congress has never successfully used the War Powers Resolution to force a president to end a military conflict. The Trump administration may argue the 60-day clock is an unconstitutional infringement on presidential Commander-in-Chief authority, though prior administrations continued reporting to Congress "consistent with" the Resolution even while disputing its constitutionality. The distinction between "withdrawal" and "cessation of major combat operations" may be subject to interpretation—partial reductions in force or transition to advisory roles could create ambiguity about whether the resolution criteria have been met.

This description was generated by AI.