Will any US state secede before 2050?
12
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2050
19%
chance

Resolves yes if any US state leaves the union for any length of time prior to January 1st, 2050. In order to resolve yes, a state must declare secession in manner that is more than symbolic, such as creating border controls with the US, issuing passports and currency, conducting foreign diplomacy as an independent state (or collection of independent secessionist states) or otherwise making moves to replace American federal powers to function as a fully autonomous nation.

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TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS TEXAS

What is the resolution criterion? A mere declaration? De facto control? Recognition by America's enemies? Recognition by America itself?

@BrunoParga updated criteria to be more precise "In order to resolve yes, a state must declare secession in manner that is more than symbolic, such as creating border controls with the US, issuing passports and currency, conducting foreign diplomacy as an independent state (or collection of independent secessionist states) or otherwise making moves to replace American federal powers to function as a fully autonomous nation."

@Joltin_Joe does it have to last for any significant period of time? The federal government is much stronger today than the last time this kind of treason was attempted, so I wouldn't expect it to take more than a couple days for the matter to be decisively solved.

@BrunoParga It need not last for a significant period of time or be ultimately successful to resolve yes.