This market has a 80% chance of resolving N/A, a 15% chance of resolving YES, and a 5% chance of resolving NO.
9
100Ṁ306resolved Aug 2
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
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Shortly after this market closes, I will tag @FairlyRandom for a number between 1 and 100. If it picks a number between 1 and 80 inclusive, this market will resolve N/A. If it picks a number between 81 and 95 inclusive, this market will resolve YES. If it picks a number between 96 and 100 inclusive, this market will resolve NO.
In other words, this market has an 80% chance of resolving N/A. Conditional on that not happening, this market has a 75% chance of resolving YES and a 25% chance of resolving NO.
The purpose of this market is to observe how traders handle conditional markets with unlikely conditionals.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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