This market has a 80% chance of resolving N/A, a 15% chance of resolving YES, and a 5% chance of resolving NO.
Non-Predictive ProfitsFairlyRandomMeta-marketsManifoldConditional markets
Mini
9
แน€306
resolved Aug 2
Resolved
N/A

Shortly after this market closes, I will tag @FairlyRandom for a number between 1 and 100. If it picks a number between 1 and 80 inclusive, this market will resolve N/A. If it picks a number between 81 and 95 inclusive, this market will resolve YES. If it picks a number between 96 and 100 inclusive, this market will resolve NO.

In other words, this market has an 80% chance of resolving N/A. Conditional on that not happening, this market has a 75% chance of resolving YES and a 25% chance of resolving NO.

The purpose of this market is to observe how traders handle conditional markets with unlikely conditionals.

Get แน€1,000 play money

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5 Comments
9 Holders
13 Trades
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๐Ÿค–

@Robincvgr your random number is: 76

Salt: b4qw4mmuujc, round: 4238178 (signature a202f56602fa4b20b6b750b46b1c9589f5748a922cc0316ce47d0d57d7376fe62a0bb195a2338392fb21584121ef41750416adf0debeb87cf53ee2f355e863eaeb04f713208da0c4f021ede954bbb8cba7070ba9087722ca3b7d17965ba2e1fb)

@mods resolve N/A please!

๐Ÿค–

@Robincvgr you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4238176 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4238178, salt: b4qw4mmuujc.

@FairlyRandom 100

With better liquidity, markets like this would be perfect for improving one's calibration by bringing underperforming buckets closer to the neutral line.

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