Poland becomes the "Israel of Europe" by 2050?
4
100Ṁ75
2050
27%
chance

Militarily powerful way above its weight, supported by the US, surrounded by hostile countries,

A larger block centered around Poland (e.g. with Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Baltics, etc.) also counts.

  • Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Military Performance Clarification:

    • Poland’s military must be capable of overcoming adversaries with populations several times larger than its own.

    • This quantifies the notion of 'punching above its weight' as mentioned in the market description.

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It took just a few % minority to make eu countries support Palestinian terrorists. Imagine what the policies will be like when the map looks like this (and consider demographic pyramid at the time).

It took just a few % minority to make eu countries support Palestinian terrorists. Imagine what the policies will be like when the map looks like this (and consider demographic pyramid at the time).

What is it's "weight " in this context? Some parochial definition?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen

Assume -

Poland's area = 312,679,000,000 m2

Depth = 1,000m (this is ill defined in international law)

Volume = 312,679,000,000,000 m3

Mass of 1m3 of rock ~ 1,500kg/m3

Countries are cuboid, not wedge shaped.

Thus -

Weight of Poland = 469,018,500,000,000,000 kg

@JussiVilleHeiskanen as in punching above its weight, performing above its weight .. does it not work with an adjective?

@skibidist I consider Poland a heavyweight by most metrics

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Oh, I just meant that it needs to be able to overcome countries several time its population

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