Will the UK GDP per capita growth be more than that of remaining EU member countries from 2018 to 2048?
21
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2055
13%
chance

The remaining EU member states (EU2023) are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.

When the GDP and population data for year 2048 is available for the UK and other listed countries is available, we calculate GDP per capita for the UK and for the combined EU2023 economies. We then compare relative growth for the values from 2018.

The answer resolves yes if the relative growth is bigger for the UK than for EU2023.

We will use data from https://data.worldbank.org or some other reputable source if this one is not available.

In case of some of the countries splitting (e.g. Scotland gaining independence) their GDP and populations should be combined. In case of more complicated changes such as losing or gaining significant territories/populations the affected countries will probably be excluded from calculations.

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The UK's per capita relative GDP growth rate has only been above eastern european countries since 1945. Basically all western european countries have had faster relative growth rates. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-2020?time=1946..latest&country=FRA~GBR~SWE~FIN~EST~DEU~ESP~PRT~NOR~DNK~CZE~OWID_CZS~CHE~POL~ITA~AUT~BEL~SVK~LTU~LVA~NLD~IRL~ROU~LUX



I'm on <10% here. 50% is waaaayy too high