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I was being pestered by some Manifold bot, so I resolved earlier than I had planned. No problem.

Any new revelations about 2023 will not count anymore.

There are no breaches per 10 January 2024.

Resolution please @uair01

@chrisjbillington I plan to resolve on january 31 because cyber incidents still may come to light. There is often a delay in detection abd publication.

I have opened a similar question for 2024: Please join!

https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-a-cloud-service-used-by-the-du-1895248abb06?r=dWFpcjAx

I will open a similar question for 2024 soon.

As of today, no hack yet. See here:

Will there be a cyberbreach of a Dutch government organization in 2023? | Manifold

I'm thinking about closing (not resolving) this bet around 20-25 december, otherwise it would be to easy. What do you think of that?

@uair01 Makes no difference, really. The probability will decay as the end of the month approaches regardless.

@chrisjbillington Could you point me to an FAQ about this please? I'm still learning.

@uair01 oh, that's not anything about the mechanics of the site, what I mean is, as the end of the year approaches, people will bet the market down toward zero, because it is becoming clearer that the event hasn't happened, and there's less time for it to happen. So there isn't one specific moment where it makes sense to close the market early if you want people to be predicting the future rather than trading on the past.

Even with markets that do have a definite time where something either will happen or not (e.g who will win a sports game), Markets on Manifold typically stay open and allow it. The creators like to prioritise the market pricing being correct over preventing "news trading", and I guess most of the community creating markets go for that, even though they don't have to. I don't think there are FAQs about this, I'm not sure.

Per today no hack yet. I keep the score here:

https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-there-be-a-cyberbreach-of-a-du?r=dWFpcjAx

Will there be a cyberbreach of a Dutch government organization in 2023?

37% chance. Added: Between 6 May 2023 and 31 December 2023 (not retrospective) ... Hackers break into a Dutch government organization and steal, publish or destroy confidential information. The incident will at least be published on the nos.nl newssite. DDos does not count. Hacking devices of a government employee and stealing the data from there does not count. Personal errors of a government employee, like losing a USB stick does not count. The "back end" of the government organization must be compromised. Added: Administrator error that does not need hacking, like leaving an Amazon bucket open, does not count. Administrator error, like not applying patches, and then getting hacked, does count.

I check the news here. This is also valid for this prediction:

https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-there-be-a-cyberbreach-of-a-du?r=dWFpcjAx