Will a cloud service used by the Dutch government be hacked in 2023?
30
156
748
resolved Jan 10
Resolved
NO

Added:

If no hack is published by 31 January 2024 this will resolve to NO.

The Dutch government has published a cloud policy in 2022 that allows public cloud use. Use of public cloud will probably grow in 2023.

Will there be a cyber incident with a public cloud service used by the Dutch government between 6 May and 31 December 2023?

Resolved if it is published on one or more newssites like nos.nl nu.nl or security.nl

What counts:

Incident with public cloud service like M365, Azure, AWS or Google.

Incident with cloud reseller, selling hyperscaler services

Incident with service based upon public cloud, like Zivver

Incident caused by cloud vulnerability, admin error, misconfiguration and user error

National, provincial and municipal organisations all count as government

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I was being pestered by some Manifold bot, so I resolved earlier than I had planned. No problem.

Any new revelations about 2023 will not count anymore.

There are no breaches per 10 January 2024.

predicted NO

Resolution please @uair01

@chrisjbillington I plan to resolve on january 31 because cyber incidents still may come to light. There is often a delay in detection abd publication.

I will open a similar question for 2024 soon.

I'm thinking about closing (not resolving) this bet around 20-25 december, otherwise it would be to easy. What do you think of that?

bought Ṁ800 of NO

@uair01 Makes no difference, really. The probability will decay as the end of the month approaches regardless.

@chrisjbillington Could you point me to an FAQ about this please? I'm still learning.

predicted NO

@uair01 oh, that's not anything about the mechanics of the site, what I mean is, as the end of the year approaches, people will bet the market down toward zero, because it is becoming clearer that the event hasn't happened, and there's less time for it to happen. So there isn't one specific moment where it makes sense to close the market early if you want people to be predicting the future rather than trading on the past.

Even with markets that do have a definite time where something either will happen or not (e.g who will win a sports game), Markets on Manifold typically stay open and allow it. The creators like to prioritise the market pricing being correct over preventing "news trading", and I guess most of the community creating markets go for that, even though they don't have to. I don't think there are FAQs about this, I'm not sure.

I check the news here. This is also valid for this prediction:

https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-there-be-a-cyberbreach-of-a-du?r=dWFpcjAx

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