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MANIFOLD
When will Nassim Taleb publish a new book? (100 subs)
20
Ṁ908Ṁ399
resolved Feb 9
72%71%
After 2024 or never
28%27%
After 2023 In 2024
2%
In 2023

Nassim Taleb has Tweeted that he's working on a new book. When will it be published?

Reissues of existing works don't count.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1595762847748857857?t=UMalxPUJ7aEQBTjNIoBEAQ&s=19

Note: it is possible that NNT will first publish a draft online. My proposal is to count this as YES. Open for discussion...

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I'm sorry if I resolved in an unsatisfying manner. I could find no better way.

I created a new and better question here:

https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-nassim-taleb-publish-a-new-boo-e312a2b26f71?r=dWFpcjAx

The user interface gives me only one option to resolve. I cannot resolve just for 2023 and leave the others open. I'm considering going for N/A and posing a new question just for 2024.

But that's not really fair for the bettors on 2023. They should lose.

I don't know what to do. Any ideas?

I would like to resolve this one to NO but it seems its not possible without resolving all options. Any ideas?

Folks a question, can I resolve 2023 to NO and leave the other options active? I'm uncertain about that.

"More general than I expected" seems likely to draw this out a while.