
Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?
13
closes 2029
56%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will something like Shampoo become the default instead of Adam?
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6 NO payouts
Ṁ174
Ṁ151
Ṁ103
Ṁ20
Ṁ4








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Related markets
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?57%
Will LLMs (or similar AI systems) be meaningfully integrated into US public school education by 2025?7%
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?40%
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?70%
In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?62%