Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030? | Manifold

Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

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26

Ṁ1759

2029

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will something like Shampoo become the default instead of Adam?

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Seems possible but <50%? Why do you think it's so high?

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Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

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