Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?57%

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?84%

Joe Reeve

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?41%

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?90%

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?84%

brubsby

Will LLMs (or similar AI systems) be meaningfully integrated into US public school education by 2025?7%

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?45%

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?75%

firstuserhere

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?68%

Peter Wildeford

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?42%

Patrick Delaney

Will LLM Detection Get Better By The End of 2023?47%

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?40%

Carson Gale

In 2023, will there be a "trough of disillusionment" regarding LLMs?13%

Noa Nabeshima

What will the inference cost of the best publicly available LM be in 2030?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?70%

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?90%

Lars Doucet

Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?22%

In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?62%

Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025?23%

Bionic

Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?23%

Related markets

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?57%

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?84%

Joe Reeve

Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?41%

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?90%

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?84%

brubsby

Will LLMs (or similar AI systems) be meaningfully integrated into US public school education by 2025?7%

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?45%

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?75%

firstuserhere

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?68%

Peter Wildeford

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?42%

Patrick Delaney

Will LLM Detection Get Better By The End of 2023?47%

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?40%

Carson Gale

In 2023, will there be a "trough of disillusionment" regarding LLMs?13%

Noa Nabeshima

What will the inference cost of the best publicly available LM be in 2030?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?70%

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?90%

Lars Doucet

Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?22%

In 2030, will LLMs be sending messages to coordinate with one another, whether we can decode them or not?62%