Will second-order optimizers displace first-order optimizers for training LLMs by 2030?
Plus
26
Ṁ17592029
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will something like Shampoo become the default instead of Adam?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
19% chance
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
61% chance
Will Google have a better LLM than OpenAI by 2025?
33% chance
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
67% chance
Will the best LLM in 2024 have <1 trillion parameters?
30% chance
Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?
63% chance
Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?
27% chance
Will Inflection AI claim to have the best LLM in the world before 2025?
18% chance
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
43% chance
Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?
74% chance