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Will the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration publish evidence of "gravitational wave echoes" by EOY 2030
5%
chance

Resolves YES if a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal or an official public data release from the LVK collaboration claims a statistically significant detection (i.e., >3 sigma) of post-merger echoes in the ringdown phase of a binary black hole coalescence. The paper must explicitly interpret these echoes as potential evidence for an ultra-compact horizonless object (like a black star) or quantum structure near the would-be horizon.

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