Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any peer-reviewed scientific publication or official announcement from a major gravitational physics collaboration (LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA, LISA, or equivalent) reports evidence of a violation of General Relativity in 2026. A violation would constitute a statistically significant deviation from GR predictions that cannot be explained by measurement uncertainty or systematic errors.

Specific examples of violations that would resolve YES:

• Gravitational wave ringdown modes with frequencies or decay rates that deviate from GR predictions, or evidence of hypothetical fields and charges predicted by alternative theories

• Deviations from the equivalence principle beyond current experimental bounds

• Violations of Lorentz invariance or other fundamental symmetries underlying GR

• Anomalies in gravitational wave propagation inconsistent with GR

The market resolves NO if no such violations are detected or reported by December 31, 2026. Null results from precision tests (e.g., confirming GR to higher accuracy) resolve NO.

Background

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration recently recorded the clearest gravitational-wave signal to date (GW250114) from the merger of two black holes roughly 30 times the mass of the Sun, and used it to test general relativity in the high-velocity, strong-gravity regime. The measured frequencies and decay rates matched GR predictions, with uncertainties ranging from a few percent to tens of percent.

As of February 2026, LIGO has made 391 detections of gravitational waves, and a fifth observing run is planned to begin between mid-September and early-October 2026 and is expected to last 6 months, with both LIGO detectors operating and VIRGO and KAGRA joining if available.

Considerations

Physicists believe it's possible that future gravitational waves will fall outside Einstein's general relativity theory, as the theory doesn't account for dark energy and dark matter. However, in both weak field limits and stronger fields, GR predictions have been extremely well tested with no deviations observed to date. Any claimed violation would require extraordinary evidence and independent confirmation before resolution.

This description was generated by AI.