Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump makes a serious attempt to run for president in the 2028 election cycle. A "serious attempt" would include officially announcing his candidacy, filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, or making clear public statements about his intention to run.

Background

• Donald Trump served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021

• The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office

• Trump has already served one full term (2017-2021) and is currently running for a potential second term in the 2024 election

• Some of Trump's allies, including former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, have suggested strategies to potentially circumvent the two-term limit

• Republican Congressman Andy Ogles has proposed amending the 22nd Amendment to allow for a third term, though this would require significant political support

Considerations

• Constitutional barriers would make a third term legally challenging without an amendment

• Trump's age would be 82 in 2028, which could be a factor in his decision

• The outcome of the 2024 election will likely influence any future political ambitions