Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by July 22, 2025, President Donald Trump has publicly advocated for nominal interest rates below 1% while the annual inflation rate is at or above 3%. Public advocacy includes official statements, social media posts, or interviews where President Trump explicitly calls for such interest rate levels. The market will resolve to "No" if no such public advocacy is documented by the specified date.

Background

President Trump has consistently expressed dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, advocating for lower rates to stimulate economic growth. For instance, in January 2025, he stated, "I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately," indicating a desire for significantly reduced rates. (cnbc.com) Additionally, in February 2025, he suggested that interest rates should be lowered to complement his tariff policies. (cnbc.com)

As of July 2025, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate stands at 4.25%–4.50%, with inflation reported at 2.7% in June. (ft.com)

Considerations

• Federal Reserve Independence: The Federal Reserve operates independently of the executive branch, and while the President can express opinions, the Fed's decisions are based on economic data and analysis.

• Economic Implications: Advocating for nominal interest rates below 1% during periods of higher inflation could lead to negative real interest rates, potentially affecting savings and investment behaviors.

• Public Statements: Verification of President Trump's advocacy will rely on official communications, reputable news sources, and public records up to the resolution date.