
Who will win the Nobel Prize in Economics, 2024?
80
18kṀ230kresolved Oct 14
34%33%
Daron Acemoglu
33%33%
James A. Robinson
33%33%
Simon Johnson
0.0%
Dave Donaldson
0.0%
Ed Glaeser
0.0%
Raj Chetty
0.0%
Andrei Shleifer
0.0%
Susan Athey
0.0%
Anne Krueger
0.0%
Joel Mokyr
0.0%
Philippe Aghion
0.0%
David Kreps
0.0%
Robin Hanson
0.0%
Ariel Rubinstein
0.0%
Ariel Pakes
0.0%
Andrew Hussie
0.0%
Michael Woodford
0.1%Other
Will resolve other if none of the listed options win, not if one unlisted person wins with a listed person.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ24,399 | |
2 | Ṁ11,163 | |
3 | Ṁ2,133 | |
4 | Ṁ1,545 | |
5 | Ṁ515 |
People are also trading
Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?
50% chance
Will anyone get Nobel prize for results related to ergodicity economics before 2030?
22% chance
Who will win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025?
Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?
6% chance
Will Ben Golub [Northwestern U prof] ever win the nobel prize in economics
37% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin win a noble prize for economics ?
8% chance
What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025?
Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]
Will any ai/ml researcher win a nobel prize in 2025?
20% chance
Will Nobel Prizes be awarded in 2060?
70% chance
Sort by:
@joanna Markets like this which are "Multiple choice · Dependent" (Click the three dots in the upper right of the market, then "see info"), have to have a resolution which sums to 100%, so it has to be 33/33/33 (not sure what happens to the last 1%)
Susan, my dear, sit down please, honey I just found out that @RobDonnelly is not holding your shares. I am so so sorry.
@beaver1 good catch. I hope she wins, but I think Econ Nobel is sufficiently unpredictable that no one has a > 10% chance of winning on any given year.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?
50% chance
Will anyone get Nobel prize for results related to ergodicity economics before 2030?
22% chance
Who will win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025?
Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?
6% chance
Will Ben Golub [Northwestern U prof] ever win the nobel prize in economics
37% chance
Will Vitalik Buterin win a noble prize for economics ?
8% chance
What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2025?
Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]
Will any ai/ml researcher win a nobel prize in 2025?
20% chance
Will Nobel Prizes be awarded in 2060?
70% chance