Who will win the Nobel Prize in Economics, 2024?
💎
Premium
80
Ṁ230k
resolved Oct 14
34%33%
Daron Acemoglu
33%33%
James A. Robinson
33%33%
Simon Johnson
0.0%
Dave Donaldson
0.0%
Ed Glaeser
0.0%
Raj Chetty
0.0%
Andrei Shleifer
0.0%
Susan Athey
0.0%
Anne Krueger
0.0%
Joel Mokyr
0.0%
Philippe Aghion
0.0%
David Kreps
0.0%
Robin Hanson
0.0%
Ariel Rubinstein
0.0%
Ariel Pakes
0.0%
Andrew Hussie
0.0%
Michael Woodford
0.1%Other

Will resolve other if none of the listed options win, not if one unlisted person wins with a listed person.

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bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Is this going to resolve 30/30/30 or all yes?

@joanna Markets like this which are "Multiple choice · Dependent" (Click the three dots in the upper right of the market, then "see info"), have to have a resolution which sums to 100%, so it has to be 33/33/33 (not sure what happens to the last 1%)

@transmissions11 resolves to acemoglu and johnson and robinson

Susan, my dear, sit down please, honey I just found out that @RobDonnelly is not holding your shares. I am so so sorry.

@beaver1 good catch. I hope she wins, but I think Econ Nobel is sufficiently unpredictable that no one has a > 10% chance of winning on any given year.

if it's posner i'm gonna kms for not buying other

Posner (you do mean the elder, right?) has an approximately zero percent chance. Basically no chance normally, but with his advanced dementia he would not be in a fit state to accept it.

added woodford from columbia despite his lack of papers on the economics of cryptocurrency staking

peter todd the inventor of BitCoin

bought Ṁ50 YES

What if multiple people on the list win? Does it resolve 50/50, 33/33/33?

Yeah, that’s reasonable. The possibility is forestalled by asking about people who are altogether unlikely to share a prize together (as would be the case if we asked about, say, Johnson and Robinson). Other will be only if no one in the people listed wins.

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