Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% in his first term?
35
7.0k
2025
4%
chance

This market will resolve YES if Biden's approval rating as measured by FiveThirtyEight (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) reaches 50% before the end of his first term, and resolves NO otherwise.

The last full day of Biden's first term is January 19, 2025, unless he leaves office before then. If FiveThirtyEight stops measuring Biden's approval rating, I'll go with a suitable alternate measure if that exists, and otherwise resolve N/A.

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