Will ""Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?", Epoc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Plus
1
Ṁ1002026
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post "Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?", Epoch AI (yes) is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
60% chance
Will "Predictable updating about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
53% chance
Will "Speaking to Congressional staffers about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
32% chance
Will "AI Timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
79% chance
Will "AI catastrophes and rogue deployments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
41% chance
Will "AI: Practical Advice for the Worried" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
31% chance
Will "Talking publicly about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
21% chance
Will "AI Timelines" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
85% chance
Will "What I Would Do If I Were Working On AI Gover..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "AI doom from an LLM-plateau-ist perspective" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
11% chance