Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zohran Mamdani is arrested (for whatever reason) or deported by December 31, 2025. Verification will be based on credible news reports from reputable sources such as The New York Times, BBC, or official government statements. If no such reports are available by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

A detention does NOT count as an arrest!

Background

Zohran Mamdani is a New York State Assembly member representing the 36th district in Queens since 2021. Born in Kampala, Uganda, he immigrated to the United States at age seven and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2018. He is the current mayoral candidate for the Democrats.

In June 2025, during his mayoral campaign, Mamdani faced a deportation threat from Republican Councilwoman Vickie Paladino, who questioned his citizenship status and suggested he should be deported. Mamdani condemned these remarks as hateful rhetoric. (queenseagle.com)

Considerations

• Legal Status: As a naturalized U.S. citizen since 2018, Mamdani cannot be deported under normal circumstances. Deportation of a naturalized citizen would require revocation of citizenship, which is rare and typically involves evidence of fraud during the naturalization process.

• Political Climate: The deportation threat appears to be politically motivated, arising during a contentious mayoral race. Such threats may not have a legal basis but could influence public perception.

• Arrest Records: Mamdani has been arrested for disorderly conduct during protests, such as an anti-Israel demonstration in October 2023. However, these incidents have not led to significant legal consequences. (canarymission.org)

I will not trade in this market.