Will Meta release an open source language model that outperforms GPT-4 by the end of 2024
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Ṁ964
Jan 1
63%
chance

Will resolve to YES if Meta releases an open source model that acheives a higher average score than GPT-4 on the following benchmarks by the end of 2024:

HellaSwag (few-shot): 0.953

MMLU (few-shot): 0.864

AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC): 0.963

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405B is not open source, just open weights, afaict?

It depends on who you ask! Many authoritative sources saying it is and isn't.

predicts YES

Related news: Meta currently training Llama 3, and plans to ramp up to almost 600K H100s equivalent compute by the end of the year https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2QARHJR1sZ/.

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