Will the solar cell world efficiency record be beaten by the end of 2024?
Dec 31

An interactive graph of research efficiency records for solar cells is given at the following link:


The current record efficiency is 47.6%, for a multijunction solar cell under concentration. By the end of 2024, will there be a new entry with higher efficiency?

I will resolve based on the website linked above or equivalent if it is down.

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Based on the graph, 4+ junction cells took the lead in 2013. In the 11 years they've held the lead, from 2013 to 2023, there was a new record in only 4 of those years. Before that, the rate of new records was much higher, but I think the more recent period is probably more relevant. Even in the period 2000-2023, I only count 13 of 24 years with new records. So it seems this market is optimistic compared to base rates, unless folks have insider info on this I think this market has been a bit high.

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