An interactive graph of research efficiency records for solar cells is given at the following link:
https://www.nrel.gov/pv/interactive-cell-efficiency.html
The current record efficiency is 47.6%, for a multijunction solar cell under concentration. By the end of 2024, will there be a new entry with higher efficiency?
I will resolve based on the website linked above or equivalent if it is down.
Based on the graph, 4+ junction cells took the lead in 2013. In the 11 years they've held the lead, from 2013 to 2023, there was a new record in only 4 of those years. Before that, the rate of new records was much higher, but I think the more recent period is probably more relevant. Even in the period 2000-2023, I only count 13 of 24 years with new records. So it seems this market is optimistic compared to base rates, unless folks have insider info on this I think this market has been a bit high.