Will scientific interest in Drexlerian nanotech noticeably increase in 2024?
10
44
Ṁ390Ṁ1k
Dec 31
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Eric drexler proposed a form of molecular nanotechnology, where custom nanoscale manipulators akin to miniature factories positionally assemble complex structures molecule by molecule.
He put forward these ideas in the books "engines of creation", and the textbook "nanosystems". After a burst of interest in the 2000's, there has recently been relatively little scientific citation of these books. Will that change in 2024?
Resolution criteria: I'm counting "noticeably increase" as a 150% increase in yearly citations in 2024, compared to 2023, for at least one of the two books, as measured by google scholar.
Yearly citations can be seen here for "engines of creation" and here for "nanoystems".
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024? (As Measured By Leaderboard)
34% chance
Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?
50% chance
Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?
40% chance
Will the technology to make a Dyson sphere exist by 2040?
33% chance
Will there be a revolution in biotechnology within the next four years?
75% chance
Will the room-temperature superconductor results of Lee et. al be reproduced by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will quantum mechanical properties prove explanatory for another biological process by the end of 2024?
34% chance
Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?
37% chance
🐕 Will A.I. Become Significantly Better at Drug Discovery in 2024?
7% chance
Will a new fundamental particle be discovered in 2024?
5% chance