Resolution Criteria:

I'll decide this question based by looking at multiple wealth factors (e.g., difference between median and top-percentile pay). I'll also consider other factors (distribution of power), how this topic is covered in the media, etc. The question only resolves to "yes" if I think it's clear that there has been a significant, discontinuous increase in concentration of power or wealth. If the world mostly looks like it does today, with slightly richer billionaires, and slightly more surveillance, this wouldn't be enough. But if things are "wow, this is very different and very bad", that's a yes. I will need only one of power or wealth to have significantly increased. So if everyone is richer, but there's now mass surveillance and a few people have all the power, that's a yes.

Motivation and Context:

New technologies tend to fall into two buckets: either they increase the concentration of power or wealth, or they decrease it. On one hand, some people believe the proliferation of AI will lead to a world where everyone can have access to personalized education, healthcare, entertainment, etc. Others believe that those who control the AI systems will use it to further entrench their power and exploit those who do not control the systems.

Question copied from: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/forecasting-ai-future.html