Resolves **YES **if Manifold's Brier score (mean squared error) is** lower than 0.16721** (source) at the end of 2024. Resolution is according to the latest Brier score listed on the official calibration page at the end date and time (end of 2024, UTC).

Resolves** NO **if Manifold's Brier score is equal to or greater than 0.16721 at the end of 2024.

Other details:

The published Brier score might not be a perfect indicator of how "accurate" Manifold really is.

The calculation is based on a sample of resolved binary questions, so it'll fluctuate every hour as the selected sample is randomized.

The Brier score is trade-weighted and not time weighted.

However, I'm going to stick with using the final published Brier score because:

It's easy and unambiguous

It will likely be a good quantitative indicator of Manifold's aggregate accuracy.