YES if any of the following members of the US House lose their primary for reelection in their districts. Squad members who drop out before their primary are not considered.
Challenged in primary:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14)
Ilhan Omar (MN-5)
Rashida Tlaib (MI-12)
Jamaal Bowman (NY-16)
Cori Bush (MO-1)
Summer Lee (PA-12) Won
Uncontested in primary:
Ayanna Pressley (MA-7)
Greg Casar (TX-35)
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I didn't read "squad members who drop out before the primary are not considered." What an annoying criterion.
@HarrisonNathan The market is intended to reward those who accurately forecast the elections, not whoever hears of someone’s retirement first. I don’t believe it’s likely anyone will drop out anyway.
@thepurplebull The problem is that a sufficiently strong primary challenge could result in a candidate dropping out before the election.