Will any Squad member lose their primary election in 2024?
Basic
12
1.3k
Aug 14
84%
chance

YES if any of the following members of the US House lose their primary for reelection in their districts. Squad members who drop out before their primary are not considered.

Challenged in primary:

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14)

  • Ilhan Omar (MN-5)

  • Rashida Tlaib (MI-12)

  • Jamaal Bowman (NY-16)

  • Cori Bush (MO-1)

  • Summer Lee (PA-12) Won

Uncontested in primary:

  • Ayanna Pressley (MA-7)

  • Greg Casar (TX-35)

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bought Ṁ30 YES

Cori Bush is in big trouble, and won't be missed, if we're being honest.

I didn't read "squad members who drop out before the primary are not considered." What an annoying criterion.

@HarrisonNathan The market is intended to reward those who accurately forecast the elections, not whoever hears of someone’s retirement first. I don’t believe it’s likely anyone will drop out anyway.

@thepurplebull The problem is that a sufficiently strong primary challenge could result in a candidate dropping out before the election.

bought Ṁ10 YES

Here's hoping.

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