[Subsidized] What will be the outcome of the TikTok ban bill (PAFACA Act)?
36
1.1kṀ4591
resolved Apr 25
100%95%
Passes House of Representatives; fails in the Senate ❌
0.2%
Fails/dies in the House of Representatives ❌
0.1%
Passes Congress; presidential veto ❌
0.1%
Passes Congress; veto overridden ✅
5%
Passes Congress; signed into law ✅

Resolves to the outcome of H.R.7521.

"Signed into law" also includes a pocket veto in which the bill is not signed by the President but becomes law automatically.


Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ527
2Ṁ195
3Ṁ169
4Ṁ67
5Ṁ15
Sort by:

Update: It appears very likely that H.R.7521 will not have any further action in the Senate. I want to clarify that actions on any other bill have no effect on this market.

Update: It appears very likely that H.R.7521 will not have any further action in the Senate. I want to clarify that actions on any other bill have no effect on this market.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@thepurplebull Some relevant context for people following on the difference between the two bills:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/20/tech/tiktok-ban-explained/index.html

sold Ṁ22 NO

What if it's not exactly H.R. 7521, but another bill or vehicle? Is my understanding correct that this is specific to ONLY H.R. 7521?

@mint Another bill doesn’t count, only this specific bill

I will resolve this option NO.

Should presumably arbitrage with this:

Passed into law, then struck down by SCOTUS -> "Passes congress, signed into law" = YES?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Yes. It doesn’t matter what SCOTUS does

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules