TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Plus

145

Ṁ30k

2029

38%

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

22%

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

21%

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

14%

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

1.9%

The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I'm curious what "None of these will happen" looks like -- maybe the executive simply doesn't bother enforcing the law?

Hi You no

reposted

@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

Both, Either?

@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.

@MichaelBlume Wait, doesn’t that just mean this resolves 100% based on the Apple App Store?

@DavidFWatson Why even mention Google?

The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

"movement toward becoming law" means procedural stuff, amendments, floor votes, stuff you would see in the congressional record

bought Ṁ100 The TikTok "ban" wil... NO

@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?

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