@MichaelBlume I want to clarify that I'm pretty confident I will not resolve to this option. The relevant law has already been signed by President Biden. If Trump somehow uses his executive power to keep TikTok in operation (presumably by ordering his AG not to enforce the law) that would be an interesting outcome, and one I'll wish I had included as an option, but not a veto. Presumably I'd resolve to "none of these happen"

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3294946/tiktok-shut-down-us-operations-sunday-barring-last-minute-reprieve-sources-say

Note: If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will (presumably) not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly.

I'm avoiding trading on this market myself but I'll say that I cannot imagine a circumstance in which I'd resolve to this option now that the ban has become law

I'm curious what "None of these will happen" looks like -- maybe the executive simply doesn't bother enforcing the law?

@SanijsVilnis

Hi You no

@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!

Both, Either?

@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.

@MichaelBlume Wait, doesn’t that just mean this resolves 100% based on the Apple App Store?

@DavidFWatson Why even mention Google?

"movement toward becoming law" means procedural stuff, amendments, floor votes, stuff you would see in the congressional record

@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?

@PlasmaBallin sorry for not responding sooner. Yeah, I can't imagine why I'd resolve to this