TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?
220
5kṀ89k2029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
47%
None of these will happen by EOY 2028
32%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
14%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
5%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens
Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Movement toward becoming law is no longer a potential resolution since the ban has been signed into law.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will presumably not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-18-01 (PST): - If Trump uses executive power to keep TikTok operational, the market will resolve to 'none of these happen.' (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
If the TikTok ban takes effect, will ByteDance divest it OR shut it down in the U.S?
At the end of 2025, will TikTok be banned in more countries than Twitter (X) and Telegram combined?
28% chance
What will the status of TikTok be in the US by the end of 2025?
Will TikTok get fully banned in the USA if Donald Trump wins the election before the end of 2026?
10% chance