TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?
TikTok Ban•Politics•Technology•Social Media•TikTok
108
600
Ṁ4.9K
2029
40%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
28%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
21%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
6%
The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law
3%
None of these will happen by EOY 2028
1.2%
The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens

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@SanijsVilnis

Hi You no

reposted

@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

Both, Either?

@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.

@MichaelBlume Wait, doesn’t that just mean this resolves 100% based on the Apple App Store?

@DavidFWatson Why even mention Google?

The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

"movement toward becoming law" means procedural stuff, amendments, floor votes, stuff you would see in the congressional record

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