TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?
220
5kṀ89k2029
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
43%
None of these will happen by EOY 2028
37%
TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company
13%
TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days
5%
The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)
Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens
Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Movement toward becoming law is no longer a potential resolution since the ban has been signed into law.
Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will presumably not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-18-01 (PST): - If Trump uses executive power to keep TikTok operational, the market will resolve to 'none of these happen.' (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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