Not voting on this because I truly have no idea, but one thing I think will be hard to account for is those spam texts the parties are sending to so many ppl asking ppl to take action or give money relating to something. Also definitely turn your news app notifications off lol

gl

I'm curious in which scenario you are more likely to pull this off, so I made a market https://manifold.markets/ADings/conditional-on-tbtbtb-finding-out-a?play=true

(It's set up the other way around - if you DON'T pull it off, who is more likely to have won - so that the N/A option is less likely)

How will it resolve in a scenario like 2000, where the winner was not clear until more than 2 weeks after the election?

@bluefrog It will resolve 2 weeks after November 4th, regardless of outcome.

Secondary market about how I find out about the election if I fail at this market https://manifold.markets/tftftftftftftftftftftftf/if-i-find-out-who-won-the-election

Update: To prevent interested parties from spoiling the results for me, i am going to lock down my phone and use only my HAM radio at an undisclosed frequency with a small circle of trustworthy individuals. For work slack i will only look at DMs, Tags, and github.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf for how long?

@JaimeSantaCruz 2 weeks. I gotta get my license tho

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf don’t know how difficult is to get licensed but sounds more plausible

Technician license is pretty easy. You need some basic physics/electronics knowledge (ohm's law; frequency = c / wavelength [edited to correct this, lol]) and some familiarity with radio stuff. The question pool is public, so you can just practice until you're confident you'll pass.

(though I'm curious why you have a radio already without a license)

Noodling on the ham bands seems like a terrible way to avoid politics...

What does ‘finding out’ mean? Maybe you have a really good clue that ends up being right, but you weren’t really sure, say if you see your friend’s facial expression when the election is mentioned and think you know what it means.

@satchlj I have thought about this a lot. I am concerned that the No bettors on this market will be incentivized to message me and tell me. I think as long as there is no causal arrow between this market and the person telling me, I will believe someone if they tell me, and resolve no. If there is a causal arrow I cannot believe them because they are incentivized to lie.

@tftftftftftftftftftftftf Can't believe I now have to find out who you are, find out who your closest friends/colleagues are, bribe them to both I) tell you, and II) shut up about it.
You're making me sweat a lot for my 291 mana here, but I'm up for it.

If you were serious about trying to do this, it would be easy - just go hiking somewhere fairly remote for a couple of weeks. But I don't think you're going to manage it.

Not a chance. Only way to do this would be to retire to a mountain cave with no electronics or human contact, and there would probably still be a red/blue fireworks display

If you believe in yourself I'll believe in you. Good luck!

Beautiful words, @FuckYou

Not sure how feasible it is to unplug from everything, I'd imagine you'd have a mental model that would keep updating your inner beliefs unless you truly don't care.

Personally, on August 7th I woke up imagining Walz was 73% to be the VP pick (it was 50/50 last I checked) and when I checked it was right around that. Similar thing happens to me for sports.

Would take similar effort as this to be successful. Idk if that's possible

https://youtu.be/e788fOzSSek?si=EuRlN9Djhbh_2APE

I don't think you can do it but you better make my stock pays out

just go to canada for two weeks

@ZaneMiller every country is following the election, Canada might even be the worst of all foreign countries to go to

I believe in you

I don't see his this could happen but desperately want op to pull it off. This is my favorite election market.