This market resolves YES if there is a vote announced by the British government on the unification of Ireland before the end of 2025-12-31. Any other outcome, such as ongoing serious talks, a promise with no date formally declared, or unification without a referendum, resolves to NO.

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Provisions for the execution of such a referendum exist in the text of the Good Friday Agreement, which can be found here as ratified by the British government. Specifically: "...the Secretary of State [for Northern Ireland, at time of writing this is held by Chris Heaton-Harris] shall [hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland." Notably, this is unilaterally decided by a British government secretary, with no way for a Stormont government or the Irish government to force such a referendum.

The most recent reliable demographic data available is from the 2021 Census, which notably showed a plurality of those from a Catholic background for the first time: 45.7% compared to 43.48% Protestant. The 2011 census was 45.1% Catholic background to 48.4% Protestant background. Generally, Catholics tend towards nationalist, pro-unification views while Protestants are generally pro-partition.

Under the Good Friday Agreement, individuals are allowed to identify as British, Irish, or both, with some also or exclusively choosing the Northern Irish identity. Other notable demographic shifts from 2011 -> 2021 are present in national identity:

• 48.8% -> 42.8% identifying as British or British along with other identities.

• 28.4% -> 33.3% identifying as Irish or Irish with other identities.

• 29.4% -> 31.5% identifying as Northern Irish or Irish along with other identities

• Other national identities (typically those from outside Ireland and the UK) rose 3.4% -> 6.0%.

There's much more detail in the NISRA report, but these are the headline figures.

There was a border poll in 1973 at the height of the Troubles. However, this was almost entirely boycotted by the nationalist community.

Modern polling for Irish unification has had erratic results. These surveys tend to have questions worded differently, some get weird outliers, but generally trending in favour of unity, with some pollsters finding wildly different results even in the same month. A good collection of them can be found on the Wikipedia page here, with pre-2010 sources being harder to find online. The lead is generally much narrower than the polling in the lead up to the 2012 signing for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, but the political situation is much more tribal. Polling of Great Britain on attitudes to Northern Ireland's status is even more limited, but one 2019 poll by Ipsos shows a plurality to be apathetic.

Political events such as the (widely criticised across both communities) 'Legacy Act' recently passed by Sunak and Brexit have given talks of unification more play in recent years. Potential future events such as the election of Keir Starmer, who has much more familiarity with Northern Ireland than current and past Prime Ministers through his role as an adviser on the Northern Ireland policing board may bring this into the broader public consciousness, however he is on the record as saying that he would campaign for the partition to remain in the event of such a referendum.