Will I solve the alignment problem in 2024?
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1kṀ2783resolved Nov 11
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I had an idea for how to solve the AI alignment problem, which I've been slowly writing up. At the end of 2024, if I still think there's something to my idea, I will do a poll of LessWrong or alignment researchers or something, and ask them how much they think my idea solves the alignment problem. The market will resolve to the mean answer.
If I don't get the writeup released before the end of June, I may push the resolution date.
If I lose belief in the idea, I may just resolve the market NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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