Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?

Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will >= 1 alignment researcher/paper cite "maximum diffusion reinforcement learning" as alignment-relevant in 2025?

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030

Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?