Background

I was in a discord server where people were arguing about whether Republicans were pushing for "transgender genocide". The anti argument was that "genocide" is an inflammatory, hyperbolic way of phrasing it, while the pro argument was that if the things Republicans were pushing for were targeted any other group, it would be considered severe human rights violations.

Except, I think the pro argument is wrong, since the things Republicans were pushing for are in many ways analogous to how serious mental health conditions like suicidality, schizophrenia and anorexia are treated. Of course one could argue that we are running a "schizophrenia genocide", and I could buy that this fits the formal definition of "genocide" in some weird NGO book, but I can see how that could be considered hyperbolic, as "genocide" connotes murder.

On the other hand, while "genocide" is hyperbolic, it seems straightforwardly true that the government is running a suicide suppression program, a schizophrenia suppression program, and an anorexia suppression program. For instance there are strong media guidelines which censor the messages of suicidal people in order to prevent others from committing suicide. And one could ask whether a state would do the same for transness. In fact, I've specifically seen people tabling the option of treating transness as being like schizophrenia.

Resolution criteria

Inspired by the suicide/schizophrenia/anorexia suppression programs, we could come up with a set of elements that might constitute a transgender suppression program:

• Non-marginal institutions endorse media guidelines to not support pro-transgender ideology, share positive stories about transness or provide information about how to transition

• Gender dysphoria, transgender identity or transgender ideology is considered a valid reason for institutionalization

• Teachers, medical professionals, and others are part of a legally enforced system to report transness to others who will help stop transitioning

• Institutions specifically make hormones less accessible in order to prevent transition

• Psychs supporting transness or doctors performing transition surgery are considered guilty of medical malpractice

• Methods like antipsychotic medication or behaviorist-inspired pain for conditioning are used as the line of treatment for gender issues

If there is any state where all of these are true for any period until 2033, this question resolves YES. If there are no states where any of these are true until 2033, this question resolves NO. If there are states where only a subset of the criteria hold, then this resolves PROB according to the amount of criteria that hold in the given state.

The scope of the question will mainly focus on adults. There are things to be said about children and teens too, but I don't want to complicate the interpretation of this question too much. That said, one exception is teachers being forced to report transness, which would be considered fulfilling a criterion.

The scope of this question will mainly focus on state and federal policies. As such, if there are conservative state or federal policies to institute a transgender suppression program, but this policy is de-facto nullified due to resistance from a progressive deep state, then this still counts as YES.

If one of the criteria are ambiguously or partially fulfilled, I may resolve it as a probability. For objectivity reasons, I will not be betting in the market.

May 3, 7:58pm: Will any American state start a transgender eradication program by 2033? → Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?; +antipsychotics criterion