ULA is targeting 16-18 Vulcan launches in 2026. That was unlikely a month ago when they announced the target, and now appears utterly fantastical. How many will they actually launch?
A launch must be successful to count (this is ULA, after all - gotta hold them to a high standard!). A successful launch is defined as payload deployment success; it’s still a success if the payload itself (or the payload-provided dispenser) fails. All times are local pad time. If a launch lifts off before the end of 2026 but success is confirmed on January 1, it will still count.
ULA 2025 launch totals: 1 Vulcan | 5 Atlas
As of March 2026, time of market creation, Vulcan has launched once and is grounded pending an investigation of another SRB anomaly.
Duplicate of my other market that offered a higher possible range.
1,000