By when will Stoke Nova first launch?
4
100Ṁ165
2028
95%
December 31 2027
78%
June 30 2027
57%
December 31 2026
53%
June 30 2026
35%
December 31 2025
4%
June 30 2025

Resolves on or before, local time in Florida.

Stoke is currently targeting an inaugural launch of Nova in 2025. This is a highly ambitious timeline, but the company has so far moved very quickly.

Answers will resolve as YES if Stoke Nova lifts off and clears the pad before the respective dates given. A successful remainder of the flight is not necessary. The flight must be on an orbital or near orbital (like Starship) trajectory -a hop test does not count.

If Stoke is acquired or goes bankrupt, the market remains valid as long as Nova, or a substantively similar derivative, is obviously continuing development.

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