Will I have my first child by August 2026?

I'm a 26 year old woman living in NYC and I got engaged last month. We're planning on getting married next year. My fiance and I are both interested in having kids but not yet sure when we'll have one. I'll answer reasonable questions in the comments.

Resolves "yes" if my child is born before August 1, 2026.

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I would bet no because you’re in New York. But I think people have kids earlier in prediction market/rationalist communities. I hope you have a blessed family and easy birth if you do!

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Will you wait until you are married before actively trying? And how far away is the wedding?

predicts YES

@Dave_9000ish Yes, and the wedding is about one year away