Will I become pregnant before August 14th, 2027?
1k
2027
82%
chance

Parent market: https://manifold.markets/VivianBelenky/will-i-become-a-parent-before-may-1

Relevant considerations:

  1. Personal details/basics:

    1. I am 27 years old, partnered, and want children

    2. I am, as far as I know, capable of becoming pregnant

    3. I am a highly skilled laborer, but do not have stable employment

    4. I expect to be able to easily find stable employment if I were in a position where I needed to do so.

    5. I am close with my parents who live ~2 hours away and can readily expect support from them.

    6. I expect my career to continue to be fairly intense and demanding for the foreseeable future.

  2. Desire for children:

    1. I strongly desire to raise children. I have weakly/hypothetically desired to raise children for most of my life and strongly desired to raise them for the last several years. This is maybe readily characterized as the strongest persistent desire I've ever had.

    2. I'm quite career focused / driven and if it came down to having a highly impactful career OR having children, I'm not sure which I would choose. However, I don't expect to have to choose.

  3. Desire for biological children specifically:

    1. I moderately prefer to have at least one biological child

      1. I think I have pretty good genes

      2. I think it would be fun and novel to see myself and my ancestors reflected in a child

      3. I think it is morally good to create additional lives

    2. I moderately disprefer to be pregnant

      1. I expect to dislike being pregnant

      2. I expect to absolutely hate giving birth

      3. However, my mother had a pretty easy pregnancy and childbirth, and childbirth is a one-time cost

    3. I would be willing to pay a small premium (~125% the cost of a pregnancy) for a biological child I do not have to carry myself, but not a large premium

    4. I estimate the value of my time at $50/hr. Funders value my time closer to $200/hr. In units of my time, I am willing to pay a small (~110% the cost of a pregnancy) premium to avoid carrying a non-biological child.

    5. I expect to be willing to pay higher premiums to avoid pregnancy if I become lucratively, stably employed

    6. If adopting, I do not strongly prefer to adopt a baby. I would be happy fostering-to-adopt a child under 5.

  4. Partner details:

    1. Living together for 2.5 years

    2. Not capable of impregnating me

    3. Estimate 95%>x>80% chance we are married within 5 years.

    4. Started out nervous/unsure/negative about children; is currently nervous-but-positive. They are about two years younger than me. We plan to actively red-team/murphy-jitsu any child raising plans before starting a family.

    5. They also have a relatively undemanding, stable, but not especially well-paid job

    6. Categorically unwilling to become pregnant; either I do it, a surrogate does, or we adopt.

    7. In my personal estimation they are likely to be a great parent.

    8. Our relationship are a big part of why I am considering children on the 5 year time horizon and not in the unspecified future

Get Ṁ600 play money