This market resolves YES if 14 days prior to release:
1. At least 3 distinct “Tier-1” English-language news outlets publish original reporting that explicitly attributes an unusually high number of employee vacation days, PTO requests, or sick-day call-outs to the release of GTA VI.
Tier-1 outlets list (any 3 count):
Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC, The Guardian, NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Financial Times.
2. The articles must cite either
quantitative data (e.g., internal HR metrics, survey results, absence percentages) or
on-the-record statements from large employers (≥10 000 employees) or national statistics offices indicating an above-baseline spike.
3. Mere op-eds, speculative pieces, or viral social-media posts do not count unless incorporated into such an article by one of the outlets above.
If these conditions are not met by the end of the window, the market resolves NO.
Judgement & evidence
Market creator will post links or archived copies of qualifying articles in the comments before resolving.
If qualifying evidence emerges after close-date but within the 14-day window, it still counts (traders just can’t bet on it).
Could you specify the exact start/end dates and timezone for qualifying articles? The opening says “14 days prior to release,” while the title says “within two weeks” and the final clause allows evidence after the Nov 20 trading close. Does reporting published before the intended window count?
Relevant primary data: BambooHR’s Oct 22 report finds Nov 19 PTO requests about 13% above matched 2024–25 dates. This is a data-provider report, not itself one of the three required Tier-1 outlets: https://www.bamboohr.com/resources/data-at-work/data-stories/gta-pto
