Will I play GTA6 on my PC within two weeks from its launch?

Ṁ1kṀ3.2k

Dec 3

30%

chance

ALL

PS5 Emulation has gotten really good, really fast. Will I be able to play GTA6 on my PC within two weeks of the game's official release? I have a 4070ti and i9 12th gen CPU. The game must reach at least 20 FPS average for me to consider it 'playable'

Cloud streaming does not count.

Update 2026-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A leaked pre-release build may resolve the market to YES if the creator considers the build complete enough.

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Would a leaked pre-release build (as in https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-cyberleek-release-his-gta6-bui ) satisfy this market?

@retr0id Slight judgement call, if I feel the build is 'complete enough' for me to consider 'having had played' the game, I'd probably resolve yes

GTA will sell 50m+ copies within 2 weeks. Getting it on PC is necessary for unrestricted modding, roleplay, etc.

There will be a huge number of motivated people with access to the best AI tools. People have exploits saved up including for older firmware versions. Once the raw code is on PC, it's single-player and AI can just go at it with hundreds of parallel agents and a verifiable goal.

I don't see how it wouldn't happen. I expect 2 days, not 2 weeks.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 30% order

Just to clarify edge cases: playing it via streaming or any other way where the rendering isn't done on your specific PC won't count, right?

@nsokolsky

Hmm @traders what do we think? I think this rule change is in the spirit of the market.

@Bandors I don't even see it as a change, streaming a game running on another system does not count as "on my PC"

@retr0id okay, I updated the description.

bought Ṁ1 YES

Fun market. I truly don't know which way to bet!

I think the main difficulty is not going to be the emulation/porting itself, but getting the game dumped. But I'm not very tapped in to the ps5 scene, so I don't know how true that is.