Resolves YES if Nvidia (NVDA) closes over $400 on December 31, 2025 according to Yahoo Finance or Google Finance (if Yahoo Finance is unavailable).
OK, so that was really stupid on my part to do that and I feel pretty sick, but if people want to do me a favor and close it out, I'm willing to accept 65% on the YES side if people want to take the profits now that I realize it's actually $40? I put up 30k there to start.
(I'm not going to ask manifold to break trades or anything, I accept that I did that)
For reference, the person who opened the market has explicitly said it's based on pre-split value:
https://manifold.markets/stuhlmueller/will-nvidia-close-over-400-at-the-e#MQ7liM2JexBgYrGskGsm
Ambiguity kinda sucks but also it would suck on the flip side to have your prediction invalidated by a stock split so
Y'all realize this is over resolving at over $40 given this factors splits?
@TomCohen Good question - the pre-split value matters, so I'd make an adjustment from Y! Finance / Google in that case.