Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades at or above $200.00 during any trading day in December 2025. Resolution will be verified using official prices from NASDAQ or Yahoo Finance. The market resolves NO if the stock never reaches $200.00 by the end of December 2025.

Trading hours only. After hours doesn’t count.

Background

As of December 3, 2025, NVDA is trading around $181.50 per share, requiring approximately a 10% gain to reach $200. The all-time high closing price was $207.04 on October 29, 2025, demonstrating the stock has traded above this level recently. Analyst consensus rates NVDA a "Strong Buy" with an average 12-month price target around $248.64, implying roughly 38% upside from current price. Nvidia's most recent results for fiscal Q3 2026 showed revenue of $57.0 billion, up 22% quarter-over-quarter and 62% year-over-year.

Considerations

Earlier in 2025, export controls on high-end AI chips to China forced Nvidia to take a $5.5 billion charge related to H20 inventory, though the company has pivoted effectively toward US and allied markets. If hyperscale customers pivot more quickly toward their own chips, Nvidia's growth and pricing power could be hit. The stock exhibits high volatility with high beta and crowded long positioning, making it susceptible to broader market pullbacks.