The likeliest way for this to resolve YES is if a current grandmaster comes out as transgender

There are ~1900 grandmasters

Transgender people are pretty underrepresented

There has never been a transgender FIDE grandmaster

There's only a little more than 2 months until the end of the year

@strutheo do WGMs count? (i assume not)

"Openly transgender" is a needed qualifier here, I think. It's impossible to know if there are trans GMs in the closet.

I just know Yosha Iglesias and I don't think she will become a GM by the end of 2025.

For this market does Grandmaster only mean the title of Grandmaster that can be obtained by any gender and for whicj the Elo threshold is 2500 ?

i believe so based on my understanding currently. has this happened already ? i only saw a IM has happened

Didn’t hear of it happening already. Just wanted to be sure that the title of WGM wouldn’t count regarding this market.

Probably worth clarifying that the IM title (“International Master”) is distinct from and has more stringent requirements* than the WIM title (“Woman International Master”).

As mentioned in @andri‘s comment below, the current highest-rated transgender player** recently became a WIM, not an IM. Her current rating is 2315 and peak rating is 2319.

Player card for Yosha Iglesias:

https://ratings.fide.com/profile/637823

—

*For one thing, the rating threshold for IM appears to be 2400, versus a threshold of 2200 for WIM.

** That I’m aware of. A quick Google doesn’t suggest any other candidates.

ty for the clarification

do we know who the highest-rated trans player is?

Looks like it's Yosha Iglesias who just became a WIM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yosha_Iglesias